There are many uncertainties associated with long-term planning. The VTrans Long-Term Risk and Opportunity Register provides for a risk-based approach focused on improving preparedness.

This risk-based approach allows for the inclusion of a range of potential impacts (positive or negative), proximity, and relative priority. It is a widely used practice utilized by several major public and private entities that allows focus on the “most consequential and significant risks ….. an area that merits the time and attention of executive management and the board of directors.” This approach provides for a continual business process to proactively identify risks and opportunities for Virginia's transportation system.

By identifying long-term risk and opportunities, we are not trying to predict the future, but rather prepare so that we are more aware and informed of possible gradual or systemic changes coming our way. Long-term risk and opportunities will be more policy-oriented, not project- or location-based. The long-term risk and opportunity register will the allow the CTB to track and monitor risks and opportunities, so that actions can be taken to mitigate risks and accentuate impacts of opportunities We plan to revisit the register on an annual basis through the VTrans Trend Trackers.

The planning horizon of year 2045 was established with consideration of state and federal requirements, as well as direction received from the Commonwealth Transportation Board.

The Virginia Code requires “at least a 20-year planning horizon” (VA Code § 33.2-353) for the statewide transportation plan. The code of federal regulations also requires “a minimum 20-year forecast period” (23 CFR § 450.216) at the time of the plan adoption.

In December 2018, CTB directed OIPI to:

• Evaluate mid‐ and long‐term viability of federal, state, and regional revenues for multimodal transportation investments
• Identify surface transportation infrastructure needs and associated policy and legislative requirements to ensure Virginia’s readiness for shared mobility, and autonomous & connected vehicles
• Complete a resiliency assessment of Virginia's multimodal network from a transportation planning perspective.

In January 2020, CTB directed OIPI to develop scenarios to assess the impacts of divergent trends to identify Long-term Needs.

In July 2020, OIPI presented a framework for the development of VTrans Long-term Needs to the CTB.

In March 2021, CTB reaffirmed that direction provided in January 2020 to “……develop VTrans Strategic Actions to advance the Board’s Vision and Goals adopted on January 15, 2020 by providing policy- and program-specific recommendations to address the identified and prioritized VTrans Mid-term Needs, as well as to address the VTrans Long-term Needs identified based on divergent future trends and a vulnerability assessment per the policy framework presented to the Board on July 14, 2020. “  

In December 2021, the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) adopted the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register. OIPI will provide an annual update on the identified risks and opportunities.

Long-term risk and opportunities draw from emerging transportation issues that could affect our ability to meet the CTB’s Vision, Goals and Objectives. They are used to develop Strategic Actions and monitoring activities. Some items require immediate action or preparation for near-term action whereas others may just need to be monitored until they solidify. The long-term risk and opportunity register also provide tools, methods, and techniques for local jurisdictions, MPOs, PDCs, and other stakeholders for awareness and to improve collective preparedness.

The Policy for the Development and Monitoring of the VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register establishes a business process that allows Virginia's surface transportation agencies to be in better position to mitigate risks and accentuate opportunities for the benefit of all stakeholders. Identified risks and opportunities also remain relevant to local jurisdictions, MPOs, PDCs, and other entities. Available data and information can help inform local and regional decision-making. Please utilize InteractVTrans DataExplorer to view and download jurisdiction-specific data. Finally, the Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment (OIPI) Growth and Accessbility Planning (GAP) Technical Assisstance Program emerging trends.

A Megatrend is defined as "a large, social, economic, political, environmental or technological change that is slow to form. Once in place, megatrends influence a wide range of activities, processes and perceptions, both in government and in society, possibly for decades. They are the underlying forces that drive trends.”

A Macrotrend is defined as "an emerging pattern of change likely to impact state government and require a response. More than one macrotrend can be associated with a megatrend."

The long-term transportation risk & opportunity register identifies four Megatrends (Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-Demographic Changes) which each have assoicated macrotrends.

The Policy for the Development and Monitoring of the VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register identifies trends as external pressures that directly or indirectly impact Virginia's transportation system in the long-term (20+ years). Given a long planning horizon, there are many uncertainties which are captured as part of scenarios. Using scenarios will help to see a range of different possibilities to inform the VTrans Risk and Opportunity Register.

The many changes that have been made in response to the coronavirus pandemic have affected all aspects of the transportation system, including transportation demand, safety, mode choice, and even funding. In many respects, we see some of these changes as an acceleration of trends that were already developing. For example, while teleworking increased rapidly and has remained popular over the past year, telework in general was already on the rise. Other changes may be temporary in nature and we don't want to lose sight of long-term issues.

The VTrans Vulnerability Assessment is a screening-level analysis of the vulnerability of Virginia’s transportation system to current and future flood hazards by focusing on vulnerabilities from sea level rise, storm surge, and inland/riverine flooding.  

The indicator-based approach is based on the FHWA Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool (VAST) This approach uses data on asset location and other key attributes as indicators of each of the three components of vulnerability: 

• Exposure – the nature and degree to which an asset is exposed (i.e., asset location relative to a stressor). 
• Sensitivity – the degree to which an asset is affected by an exposure (i.e., if all assets were equally exposed, which assets would experience the greatest damage?). 
• Adaptive Capacity – the ability of a system or asset to adjust to the impacts, to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences. 

For more information, including data sources and technical methods, please review the Technical Guide: Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk and Opportunity Register available here.

This is a screening-level assessment of the vulnerability of Virginia’s transportation system, more specifically all public roadways and VDOT-maintained structures (bridges and culverts) covered in the National Bridge Inventory (NBI), to projected sea level rise, storm surge, and inland/riverine flooding scenarios.  The VTrans Vulnerability Assessment is not intended to be used to develop location-specific recommendations for the following reasons:

• While this screening-level assessment narrows the universe of transportation infrastructure for further review, it does not replace the need for the collection of more precise location-specific data.
• The transportation system is one of the many infrastructure components impacted by the forecasted vulnerabilities. Therefore, it would be advisable to conduct a more comprehensive area-wide assessment for all components of physical and social infrastructure as some vulnerability mitigation strategies might require systematic solutions such as perimeter protection.
• As noted in the VTrans Macrotrend 1: Flooding Risk Assessment Technical Memorandum, several critical datasets are either currently incomplete or unavailable. Therefore, our conservative approach capture a few locations that can be deemed as "false positive" as they are either elevated and therefore not at risk from flooding. As mentioned above, this screening-level analysis narrows the universe of facilities at-risk but does not replace the planning or engineering judgment.