Long-term planning comes with uncertainty. The VTrans Long-tTerm Risk and Opportunity Register uses a risk-based approach to improve preparedness for Virginia’s transportation system.

This approach:

• Considers potential positive or negative impacts, how soon they might occur, and their priority level.
• Focuses on the most significant risks, the kind that deserve attention from top decision-makers.
• Is widely used by major public and private organizations.
• Creates an ongoing process to spot and address risks and opportunities before they happen.

The purpose is not to predict the future. The goal is to prepare for gradual or systemic changes that may affect Virginia’s transportation system.

The register focuses on policy issues, not specific projects or locations. It helps the CTB track risks and opportunities. The CTB can then act to reduce risks and build on opportunities. The register is updated each year through VTrans Trend Trackers.

Planning horizon:

• VTrans looks ahead to the year 2045.
• Virginia law requires at least a 20-year horizon (VA Code § 33.2-353).
• Federal law also requires at least a 20-year forecast (23 CFR § 450.216).
• Key CTB directions and actions:
  • 2018 : Study long- and mid-term funding viability, new technology, and resiliency of Virginia’s network.
  • 2020: Develop scenarios to test different future trends and identify long-term needs.
  • 2020 (July): Present framework for long-term needs.
  • 2021 (March): Reaffirm direction to create VTrans Strategic Actions tied to long- and mid-term needs.
  • 2021 (December): Adopt the Policy for Development and Monitoring of the VTrans Risk and Opportunity Register.

OIPI now provides annual updates on identified risks and opportunities.

The register highlights emerging transportation issues that could impact the CTB’s vision, goals, and objectives. It is used to:

• Create Strategic Actions and set up monitoring activities.
• Identify items needing immediate action, near-term preparation, or simply long-term observation.
• Provide tools, methods, and techniques to localities, MPOs, PDCs, and other partners to raise awareness and improve collective preparedness.

The policy creates a business process that helps Virginia be better prepared to reduce risks and take advantage of opportunities.

Benefits include:

• Risks and opportunities that are relevant at the local, regional, and state level.
• Access to data and information that can guide local and regional decisions.
• Tools like InteractVTrans DataExplorer for downloading jurisdiction-specific data.
• Support from the GAP Technical Assistance Program on emerging trends.

Megatrend – A large social, economic, political, environmental, or technological change that forms slowly but can shape government and society for decades. Megatrends are the underlying forces that drive trends.

Macrotrend – An emerging pattern of change likely to affect state government and require a response. Multiple macrotrends can be linked to a single megatrend.

The register identifies four megatrends, each with related macrotrends:

1. Climate
2. Technological advancements
3. Consumption patterns
4. Socio-demographic changes

• Trends – External pressures that directly or indirectly affect Virginia’s transportation system over the long term (20+ years).
• Scenarios – Ways to capture uncertainty over a long planning horizon by exploring different possible futures.

In the VTrans Long-Term Risk and Opportunity Register, scenarios are used to show a range of possibilities, helping planners prepare for multiple potential outcomes.

The coronavirus pandemic has affected every part of the transportation system. This includes demand, safety, mode choice, and funding.

Many of these changes accelerated trends already underway. For example, telework grew quickly during the pandemic and remains popular, but it was already on the rise before COVID-19.

The VTrans Vulnerability Assessment is a screening-level analysis of how vulnerable Virginia’s transportation system is to current and future flood hazards. It focuses on risks from:

• Sea level rise
• Storm surge
• Inland/riverine flooding

VTrans used an indicator-based approach based on the FHWA Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool (VAST). This method uses asset location and other key data to score three components of vulnerability:

• Exposure – How close an asset is to a flood hazard (its location relative to the stressor).
• Sensitivity – How much damage an asset would take if exposed, compared to other assets.
• Adaptive Capacity – How well an asset can adjust, limit damage, take advantage of opportunities, or cope with impacts.

For more on data sources and technical methods, see the Technical Guide: Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk and Opportunity Register.

This is a screening-level assessment of how vulnerable Virginia’s transportation system is. It focuses on all public roads and VDOT-maintained bridges and culverts in the National Bridge Inventory (NBI). The assessment looks at projected sea level rise, storm surge, and inland/riverine flooding.

Limitations:

• It is not meant to create location-specific recommendations. More detailed, site-specific data is still needed.
• Transportation is only one part of an area’s infrastructure. Broader assessments should include other physical and social systems because some solutions may require system-wide measures such as perimeter protection.
• Some important datasets are incomplete or unavailable. This conservative approach may include a few false positives, such as elevated areas mistakenly flagged as at risk.

The purpose of the assessment is to narrow down potentially vulnerable facilities. It does not replace planning or engineering judgment.