Virginia’s Communities Are Changing

Demographic shifts are reshaping how people live, work, and travel. This can guide smarter and more responsive transportation planning.

Megatrend 4: Socio-demographic Changes

Socio-demographic Changes is one of the four megatrends identified by VTrans. These are powerful forces that will impact Virginia’s transportation systems in the future. These transportation macrotrends shape the megatrend:

Growth of the professional services industry
Increased workplace flexibility
Growth of the 65+ population
Population and employment shifts

Predicting the future is not easy. So, three scenarios point out the level of uncertainty for each forecast. They range from low, to medium, to high. The policy relies on total impacts to all the Macrotrends and Megatrends. Together, they help identify risks and opportunities to the Commonwealth’s transportation system.

Macrotrend 7: Growth of Professional Services Industry

This macrotrend is affected by these factors:

Growth of the service economy
A move to a more digital economy

See the chart below for technical and professional service job estimates.

Professional and Technical Services Jobs Share of Total Jobs by Region, Medium Impact Scenario, 2045

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Macrotrend 8: Increase in Workplace Flexibility

This macrotrend is affected by these factors:

Communications technology advancements
Broadband service speed, reliability, and availability
Growth of the professional services industry

See the map below for work flexibility based on region.

Jobs with Workplace Flexibility as the Share of Regional Total Jobs, Medium Impact Scenario, 2045

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Macrotrend 9: Growth of the 65+ Population

This macrotrend is affected by these factors:

Migration patterns
Location preferences
Medical advancement
Overall population growth

See the chart below for the projected population change.

Projected Change in the Share of 65+ Population Cohort, 2019-2050

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Macrotrend 10: Population and Employment Shift

This macrotrend is affected by these factors:

Natural hazards
Location preferences of businesses
Location preferences of households

See the chart below for the projected population and employment change.

Projected Change in Population and Employment, 2019-2050

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Total Impacts of Megatrends and Macrotrends

You can find cumulative impacts, their risks, and opportunities here:Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register.

For more information visit:

The Technical Guide for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register for methods and processes utilized to develop the estimates.
DataExplorer to view infographics related to this and other macrotrends.

Things to Know

The intent is to prepare, not predict. This is a risk-based approach. It helps understand a range of possible impacts. This helps plan timelines and priorities.
The groups who help set policy can change trends to achieve more desirable results.
The Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register helps monitor and report on these trends.

Megatrend Links

Megatrend 1: Climate Megatrend 2: Technology Megatrend 3: Consumption Megatrend 4: Socio-demographic Changes

Frequently Asked Questions

Have more VTrans questions? Find answers on our FAQ page.