Technology Changes How Virginia Moves

New technology like electric vehicles, automation, and AI is changing how we get around. These advancements shape how we plan for the future.

Megatrend 2: Technology

Technological Changes is one of the four megatrends identified by VTrans. These are powerful forces that will impact Virginia’s transportation systems in the future. These transportation macrotrends shape the megatrend:

Adoption of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs)
Adoption of electric vehicles (EVs)
Growth in shared mobility

Predicting the future is not easy. So, three scenarios point out the level of uncertainty for each forecast. They range from low, to medium, to high. The policy relies on total impacts to all the Macrotrends and Megatrends. Together, they help identify risks and opportunities to the Commonwealth’s transportation system.

Macrotrend 2: Adoption of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles

This macrotrend is affected by these factors:

Advancement of vehicle sensing
Improvement of information processing technologies
Industry investment in CAV development
Consumer preferences for safety
Consumer openness to vehicle technology

See the chart below for autonomous vehicle estimates.

Estimated Market Share of Level 4+ Autonomous Vehicles, Medium Impact Scenario, 2045

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Macrotrend 3: Adoption of Electric Vehicles

The leading factors for the adoption of electric vehicles are:

Advancements in battery technology
Lower manufacturing costs
National charging infrastructure growth
Shifts in public policy

See the chart below for EV market share estimates.

Estimated Market Share of Electric Vehicles, Medium Impact Scenario, 2045

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Macrotrend 4: Growth in Shared Mobility

The leading factors for growth in shared mobility are:

Broadband adoption
Increased use of mobile devices
Increased capabilities of mobile devices
Increased interest in gig economy jobs

The chart below shows how shared mobility growth could change how we get around. It estimates vehicle miles that could be replaced by micromobility or ride-hailing.

Projected 2045 Share of Urban Area SOV Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Switchable to Ridesourcing/TNC’s and Micromobility, Medium Impact Scenario

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Total Impacts of Megatrends and Macrotrends

You can find cumulative impacts, their risks, and opportunities here:Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register.

For more information visit:

The Technical Guide for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register for methods and processes utilized to develop the estimates.
DataExplorer to view infographics related to this and other macrotrends.

Things to Know

The intent is to prepare, not predict. This is a risk-based approach. It helps understand a range of possible impacts. This helps plan timelines and priorities.
The groups who help set policy can change trends to achieve more desirable results.
The Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register helps monitor and report on these trends.

Megatrend Links

Megatrend 1: Climate Megatrend 2: Technology Megatrend 3: Consumption Megatrend 4: Socio-demographic Changes

Frequently Asked Questions

Have more VTrans questions? Find answers on our FAQ page.