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Virginians’ Buying Habits Change How They Travel

Shifts to e-commerce and home delivery are changing the way consumers behave. This affects demand on roads, freight systems, and land use around Virginia.

Megatrend 3: Consumption

Changes in Consumption Patterns is one of the four megatrends identified by VTrans. These are powerful forces that will impact Virginia’s transportation systems in the future. These transportation macrotrends shape the megatrend:
  • Growth in e-commerce
  • Greater automation of production and services
Predicting the future is not easy. So, three scenarios point out the level of uncertainty for each forecast. They range from low, to medium, to high. The policy relies on total impacts to all the Macrotrends and Megatrends. Together, they help identify risks and opportunities to the Commonwealth’s transportation system.
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Macrotrend 5: Growth in E-commerce

This macrotrend is affected by these factors:

  • Convenience
  • Customer Expectations
  • Willingness to pay for delivery services
  • Willingness to pay for shipping services

See the chart below for e-commerce market share estimates.

E-commerce Market Share of Business-to-Business (B2B) and Business-to-Consumer (B2C) trade, Medium Impact Scenario, 2045
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Macrotrend 6: Greater Automation of Production and Services

This macrotrend is affected by these factors:

  • E-commerce growth
  • Just-in-time production use
  • Machine learning and artificial intelligence
  • Digitization of product
  • Digitization of distribution

See the chart below for 3D printing and drone delivery market share estimates.

Market Shares of 3D Printing Output and Drone Deliveries, Medium Impact Scenario, 2045
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Total Impacts of Megatrends and Macrotrends

You can find cumulative impacts, their risks, and opportunities here:Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register.

For more information visit:

Things to Know
  • The intent is to prepare, not predict. This is a risk-based approach. It helps understand a range of possible impacts. This helps plan timelines and priorities.
  • The groups who help set policy can change trends to achieve more desirable results.
  • The Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register helps monitor and report on these trends.
Megatrend Links
Megatrend 1: ClimateMegatrend 2: TechnologyMegatrend 3: ConsumptionMegatrend 4: Socio-demographic Changes
Frequently Asked Questions

Have more VTrans questions? Find answers on our FAQ page.